California Redistricting - Bay Area Could Lose A Congressional Seat

The 2010 Census Redistricting Data for California was published today. The population of California grew from approximately 33 million in 2000 to almost 38 million in 2010:

And California is stuck with 53 Congressional seats for the coming decade, meaning that population shifts, alone, will account for much of the redistricting done in California in the next few months. Experts are predicting that, because of the obvious growth of the Central Valley relative to other parts of the state, the Bay Area stands to lose at least one Congressional seat:

The dramatic population shift under way in the state, redistricting experts say, will make plain that the Bay Area should probably lose a district. The population in the ascendant Central Valley has grown roughly 15 times as fast as the population in the San Francisco Bay Area over the last decade, according to federal population estimates.

However, any redistricting in the area may be a double-edged sword:

The congressional districts that the Bay Area already shares with the Central Valley — 1, 3 and 11 — could be stretched farther into the Central Valley, some political scholars say. But the pendulum may well swing the other way. Republicans say they fear that portions of Contra County [sic, Costa] County, like Congressional District 10, a heavily Democratic area represented by John Garamendi that is known as the “seahorse” for its odd shape, may be reconstituted to include localities like Danville and San Ramon — currently in the 11th District — making it even harder for Republicans to get elected.

[Editor's note - District 11, represented by Jerry McNerney, looks more like a seahorse to me, but I'm not a professional at these things.] Congressional Districts 1, 3 and 11 are presented below for reference:

Certainly, the western end of District 3 will be lopped off and potentially added to a new District; such a reformed District 10 would still be reliably Democratic. District 11 is almost certain to be radically recast, particularly the portion encompassing only part of Stockton (similarly, District 18, which represents the central portion of Stockton, would be significantly redrawn, as well). My guess is that District 10 would be redistributed among Districts 1, 7, 9 and 11 to reduce the number of Bay area Districts, while a new Central Valley District would be formed from portions of existing Districts 11, 18 and 19.

I've been focusing on potential redistricting in Southern California, but it looks like the Sacramento-area Central Valley will be a hotbed of redrawing as well.