Although the election date has not yet been set, it will presumably take place before the California Redistricting Commission completes redistricting by August 15, 2011. As such, the 36th, as it is now, is up for grabs.
Winograd, as a Democrat, would most likely be favored to win against a Republican challenger, although voter registration totals point to a safe Democratic district (voter registrations in Marina del Rey, West Carson, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach Lennox, and Lomita significantly favor Democrats, while registrations in El Segundo, Manhattan Beach, and Torrance only narrowly favor Republicans). Winograd did better in the northern part of the District, around Venice Beach, during the Democratic primary last summer, than did Harman, who did better in the southern part of the District:
Interestingly, Republican Dana Rohrbacher's 46th Congressional District abuts the more conservative southern end of the 36th District:
If the Redistricting Commission gets its way (and it almost certainly will), one possible redistricting would fold the western end of Rohrbacher's District, including Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills Estates and Palos Verdes Estates, into the southern end of the 36th, and the more heavily-Democratic Venice Beach and Lennox areas would be removed from the 36th, creating a distinctly more conservative district. (See govtrack.us for a more detailed, and expandable, view of the 46th.) If this is how the 36th is ultimately redistricted, Winograd would not fare as well in a 2012 general election as in the 36th as currently drawn. While we favor a Winograd run, there's a reason Harman was, however annoyingly, a Blue Dog Democrat.
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